Starmer out by 2025?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket currently prices the likelihood of Keir Starmer ceasing to serve as Prime Minister between now and year-end 2025 at effectively zero, with conditional YES tokens trading near worthless on Polygon. The market structure settles immediately upon any announcement of resignation or removal, regardless of implementation timing, creating a binary outcome that hinges on political events rather than procedural delays. This pricing reflects the baseline assumption that the Labour government, which secured a substantial Commons majority in July 2024, will remain intact through the calendar year.

Historical precedent suggests such markets typically underestimate tail risks. Tony Blair served a full decade before stepping down voluntarily; Gordon Brown lasted three years before electoral defeat; David Cameron resigned within months of the Brexit referendum. The variability in tenure reflects how external shocks—economic crises, scandals, party rebellions—can accelerate departures that seemed improbable beforehand. Theresa May's 2019 exit came after sustained backbench pressure, whilst Boris Johnson's 2022 collapse followed rapid ministerial resignations. The current 0% probability implies confidence in structural stability rather than certainty.

Traders monitoring this contract should track Labour's polling trajectory against the Conservatives, currently trailing by 15–20 points according to recent YouGov surveys. Internal party management—particularly backbench dissent over fiscal policy or public service reform—represents a secondary catalyst. Any major economic deterioration, significant by-election losses, or unexpected health issues affecting Starmer would shift the calculus. The market's settlement mechanism means even speculation about potential announcements could trigger rapid repricing before any formal statement materialises.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.