Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Palermo: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Palermo: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Palermo: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Palermo: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Palermo: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Palermo: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Palermo: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Palermo: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Palermo: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Palermo: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Palermo: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Palermo: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Palermo: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Palermo: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Palermo: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to palermo: ekaterine gorgodze vs ane mintegi del olmo. This market refers to the tennis match between Ekaterine Gorgodze and Ane Mintegi Del Olmo in the Palermo, originally scheduled for July 20, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ekaterine …
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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