Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
68% | 32% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
68% | 32% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Iasi Open: Anna Bondar vs Sara Sorribes Tormo Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 68% |
| Iasi Open: Anna Bondar vs Sara Sorribes Tormo | 57% |
| Iasi Open: Anna Bondar vs Sara Sorribes Tormo Set 1 Winner | 55% |
| Iasi Open: Anna Bondar vs Sara Sorribes Tormo Set 2 Winner | 51% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Iasi Open: Anna Bondar vs Sara Sorribes Tormo Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Iasi Open: Anna Bondar vs Sara Sorribes Tormo Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Iasi Open: Anna Bondar vs Sara Sorribes Tormo Match O/U 21.5 | 48% |
| Iasi Open: Anna Bondar vs Sara Sorribes Tormo Match O/U 22.5 | 42% |
| Iasi Open: Anna Bondar vs Sara Sorribes Tormo Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 38% |
| Iasi Open: Anna Bondar vs Sara Sorribes Tormo Match O/U 23.5 | 38% |
| Iasi Open: Anna Bondar vs Sara Sorribes Tormo Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 37% |
| Iasi Open: Anna Bondar vs Sara Sorribes Tormo Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 33% |
| Iasi Open: Anna Bondar vs Sara Sorribes Tormo Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 27% |
| Iasi Open: Anna Bondar vs Sara Sorribes Tormo Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 26% |
| Iasi Open: Anna Bondar vs Sara Sorribes Tormo Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 23% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 68% YES probability for Iasi Open: Anna Bondar vs Sara Sorribes Tormo. This market refers to the tennis match between Anna Bondar and Sara Sorribes Tormo in the Iasi Open, originally scheduled for July 13, 2026 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Anna Bondar' if …
Methodology
This page reviews Iasi Open: Anna Bondar vs Sara Sorribes Tormo across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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