Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map Handicap: TH (-1.5) vs MIBR LOS (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 28.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-2.5) vs MIBR LOS (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-4.5) vs MIBR LOS (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-3.5) vs MIBR LOS (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-5.5) vs MIBR LOS (+5.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-6.5) vs MIBR LOS (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-7.5) vs MIBR LOS (+7.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-9.5) vs MIBR LOS (+9.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 90% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-2.5) vs Team Heretics (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 29.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 33.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 32.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 31.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-8.5) vs MIBR LOS (+8.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-2.5) vs Team Heretics (+2.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-2.5) vs MIBR LOS (+2.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-3.5) vs MIBR LOS (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-4.5) vs MIBR LOS (+4.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-6.5) vs MIBR LOS (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-2.5) vs Team Heretics (+2.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-5.5) vs MIBR LOS (+5.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map Handicap: MIBR LOS (-1.5) vs Team Heretics (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-10.5) vs MIBR LOS (+10.5) | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of valorant: mibr los vs team heretics (bo3) - esports world cup group d. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Valorant Winners match between MIBR LOS and Team Heretics in the Esports World Cup Group D, initially scheduled for July 5 at 7:00AM ET. This market will…
Methodology
We track Valorant: MIBR LOS vs Team Heretics (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade Valorant: MIBR LOS vs Team Heretics (BO3) - Esports … on Kalshi UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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