UFC Fight Night: Daniel Barez vs. Luis Gurule (Flyweight, Prelims)

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Daniel Barez is scheduled to face Luis Gurule at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa on the flyweight prelims, and Polymarket is currently pricing the contract at 0% YES, implying the market does not see a live path to a Barez win being reflected yet. On Polymarket, the outcome is settled in USDC on Polygon via conditional tokens, so the price is simply the crowd’s view of which official UFC result will be reported before the settlement window closes.

A 0% quote is usually a sign of either missing liquidity or a market that has been ignored rather than a firm read on the fight itself. For a prelim flyweight bout, traders generally anchor on official bout status, weigh-in completion, and whether either fighter has any late replacement or medical withdrawal risk, because those are the main ways a market can flip from a near-zero price. The UFC Stats bout page already lists the matchup as an official flyweight bout, which is the right baseline for checking whether the contest remains on the card.

The main catalysts are routine but important: final bout order, any last-minute scrapes at the weigh-ins, and whether the UFC confirms the fight on fight week or revises the card. The settlement source is official UFC information, so a cancellation, no contest, or postponement beyond 30 May would not resolve to either fighter but to 50-50 under the market rules. Traders should also watch for updated card listings from UFC and event preview outlets such as The Stats Zone, since changes there tend to precede the official result release that drives resolution.

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Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.