Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 96% |
| GNK Dinamo Zagreb O/U 0.5 | 88% |
| O/U 1.5 | 82% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 82% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 74% |
| Viking FK O/U 0.5 | 67% |
| GNK Dinamo Zagreb 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 67% |
| Team to Advance | 61% |
| O/U 2.5 | 60% |
| Both Teams to Score | 60% |
| GNK Dinamo Zagreb O/U 1.5 | 59% |
| GNK Dinamo Zagreb 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 59% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Viking FK 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 47% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 39% |
| Viking FK 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 38% |
| O/U 3.5 | 37% |
| GNK Dinamo Zagreb (-1.5) | 33% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 33% |
| GNK Dinamo Zagreb O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| GNK Dinamo Zagreb 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| Viking FK O/U 1.5 | 30% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 26% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 23% |
| GNK Dinamo Zagreb 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 22% |
| O/U 4.5 | 20% |
| GNK Dinamo Zagreb (-2.5) | 16% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 15% |
| Viking FK 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 15% |
| Viking FK O/U 2.5 | 10% |
| Viking FK 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 10% |
| O/U 5.5 | 9% |
| Viking FK (-1.5) | 7% |
| Viking FK (-2.5) | 2% |
Market context
Market consensus: 96% chance of gnk dinamo zagreb vs. viking fk - more markets. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. More markets for the UEFA Champions League game, scheduled for August 18 at 3:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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