Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Internazionale Milano

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Market context

Polymarket is pricing a Bologna victory at 26% on the USDC/Polygon conditional token pair, with settlement locked for 24 May 2026 at 13:00 UTC. The underlying fixture is a Serie A encounter between Bologna and Inter Milan, two clubs separated by significant competitive distance in Italy's top division. Inter have won the Scudetto twice in the past four seasons and typically finish in the top two; Bologna, by contrast, qualified for European competition last term but remain mid-table regulars. The 26% probability reflects this structural imbalance—a visiting underdog facing a title-contending side at the San Siro.

Historical context suggests the current odds undervalue Bologna's chances only marginally. In the 2024–25 Serie A season, Bologna took points off Inter once and drew with them once across two fixtures, a respectable record against a superior opponent. Over the past five years, Bologna have won roughly one in six matches against top-four finishers when playing away, placing a 26% win probability in the plausible range. Inter's form heading into late May will be decisive; if they are chasing the title or securing Champions League qualification, motivation will be high. Conversely, if their season is settled, rotation becomes likely.

Traders should monitor team news from mid-May onwards. Injury updates to Inter's key attacking players—particularly their centre-forward and midfield engine—could shift the odds materially. Bologna's own fitness status matters less given their lower baseline expectation, though a run of poor form in the weeks prior would further compress their chances. The fixture's timing, late in the season, means both clubs' domestic and European commitments will be known, clarifying whether either side is managing workload or fighting for objectives.

Methodology

This page reviews Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Internazionale Milano across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.