Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 100% |
| O/U 24.5 | 83% |
| Patriots O/U 10.5 | 80% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 79% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 79% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 78% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 76% |
| Dolphins O/U 10.5 | 76% |
| Patriots O/U 12.5 | 74% |
| O/U 26.5 | 73% |
| Patriots O/U 13.5 | 73% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 69% |
| O/U 28.5 | 68% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 66% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 65% |
| Patriots vs. Dolphins | 62% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 60% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 59% |
| Patriots O/U 16.5 | 58% |
| O/U 30.5 | 57% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| Spread -1.5 | 55% |
| Spread -2.5 | 54% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 52% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 51% |
| Dolphins Total Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Patriots Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Patriots O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Patriots O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Dolphins by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Dolphins by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Dolphins by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Dolphins by 21+ | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 50% |
| Patriots Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Patriots vs. Dolphins: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Patriots Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Patriots O/U 19.5 | 49% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 19.5 | 49% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 48% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 48% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 47% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 45% |
| Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 43% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 43% |
| O/U 34.5 | 43% |
| Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| Spread -4.5 | 38% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 38% |
| Dolphins 1H O/U 6.5 | 38% |
| Spread -5.5 | 35% |
| Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 33% |
| O/U 36.5 | 33% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 32% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 32% |
| Spread -6.5 | 31% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 31% |
| Patriots O/U 20.5 | 31% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 30% |
| O/U 38.5 | 28% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 28% |
| Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 25% |
| Spread -7.5 | 24% |
| Spread -4.5 | 23% |
| Spread -8.5 | 22% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 22% |
| O/U 40.5 | 22% |
| Dolphins O/U 20.5 | 22% |
| Spread -5.5 | 21% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 21% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 20% |
| Spread -9.5 | 19% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 18% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 18% |
| Spread -10.5 | 17% |
| Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| O/U 42.5 | 16% |
| Patriots O/U 23.5 | 16% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 15% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 1H Moneyline | 14% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 13% |
| Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| Spread -8.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 12% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 13-18 | 12% |
| Spread -13.5 | 11% |
| O/U 44.5 | 11% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 6.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 10% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 10% |
| Patriots O/U 26.5 | 10% |
| Spread -14.5 | 9% |
| Spread -9.5 | 9% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 8% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 8% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 8% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| O/U 46.5 | 8% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 8% |
| Spread -16.5 | 7% |
| Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 7% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| Patriots O/U 27.5 | 7% |
| O/U 48.5 | 6% |
| Spread -17.5 | 5% |
| Spread -19.5 | 5% |
| Spread -13.5 | 5% |
| Spread -20.5 | 4% |
| Spread -14.5 | 4% |
| O/U 50.5 | 4% |
| O/U 52.5 | 4% |
| Spread -16.5 | 3% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 3% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 3% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 3% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 3% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 3% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 3% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 3% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 3% |
| Dolphins 1H O/U 19.5 | 3% |
| Spread -21.5 | 2% |
| Spread -17.5 | 2% |
| Spread -19.5 | 2% |
| Spread -20.5 | 2% |
| Spread -21.5 | 2% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 2% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 2% |
| O/U 54.5 | 2% |
| O/U 56.5 | 2% |
| O/U 58.5 | 2% |
| O/U 60.5 | 2% |
| O/U 64.5 | 2% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 2% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 2% |
| Dolphins 1H O/U 13.5 | 2% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 2% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 1% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 1% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 1% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 1% |
| O/U 62.5 | 1% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 12.5 | 1% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 13.5 | 1% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 16.5 | 1% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 20.5 | 1% |
| Dolphins 1H O/U 16.5 | 1% |
| Dolphins 1H O/U 20.5 | 1% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to patriots vs. dolphins. In the upcoming NFL football game between Patriots and Dolphins, scheduled for November 1 at 4:25PM ET: This market will resolve to "Patriots" if Patriots win the game. This market will resolve to "Do…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $1.1M.
Methodology
We track Patriots vs. Dolphins across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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