Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 213.5 | 96% |
| O/U 215.5 | 95% |
| O/U 217.5 | 94% |
| O/U 219.5 | 93% |
| O/U 221.5 | 91% |
| O/U 223.5 | 88% |
| O/U 225.5 | 85% |
| Bulls O/U 110.5 | 84% |
| O/U 227.5 | 83% |
| Wizards O/U 110.5 | 82% |
| O/U 229.5 | 80% |
| Bulls O/U 112.5 | 80% |
| O/U 230.5 | 78% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 78% |
| Wizards O/U 112.5 | 78% |
| O/U 231.5 | 76% |
| 1H O/U 115.5 | 74% |
| Bulls O/U 114.5 | 74% |
| Wizards O/U 114.5 | 74% |
| O/U 233.5 | 73% |
| 1H O/U 111.5 | 73% |
| 1H O/U 109.5 | 72% |
| 1H O/U 117.5 | 72% |
| O/U 235.5 | 69% |
| Bulls O/U 116.5 | 69% |
| 1H O/U 113.5 | 68% |
| 2Q O/U 59.5 | 68% |
| Wizards O/U 116.5 | 68% |
| 1Q O/U 57.5 | 67% |
| O/U 236.5 | 66% |
| O/U 237.5 | 65% |
| Bulls O/U 118.5 | 63% |
| O/U 238.5 | 62% |
| 1H O/U 121.5 | 62% |
| Wizards O/U 118.5 | 62% |
| O/U 239.5 | 60% |
| 1H O/U 119.5 | 60% |
| O/U 241.5 | 56% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 19.5 | 56% |
| 1H O/U 123.5 | 56% |
| Caleb Wilson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 55% |
| Wizards O/U 120.5 | 55% |
| O/U 242.5 | 54% |
| O/U 243.5 | 52% |
| 1H Moneyline | 51% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 59.5 | 51% |
| 2Q O/U 61.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Caleb Wilson: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Caleb Wilson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Davis: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Davis: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Davis: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Norman Powell: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Norman Powell: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Norman Powell: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Norman Powell: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Caleb Wilson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Matas Buzelis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Matas Buzelis: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Matas Buzelis: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Matas Buzelis: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Kyshawn George: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Smith: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Smith: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Smith: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 51.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 66.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Bulls O/U 120.5 | 50% |
| Bulls O/U 122.5 | 50% |
| Bulls O/U 124.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 1H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 1H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 1H O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 1H O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 2H O/U 65.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 1H O/U 66.5 | 50% |
| Wizards 1H O/U 66.5 | 50% |
| Wizards O/U 134.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 2H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 2H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 2H O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 2H O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| Wizards 1H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Wizards 1H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| Wizards 1H O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| Wizards 2H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Wizards 2H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Wizards 2H O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| Wizards 2H O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| Wizards 2H O/U 65.5 | 50% |
| O/U 244.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 49% |
| 1H O/U 125.5 | 49% |
| Caleb Wilson: Assists O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 49% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 49% |
| Kyshawn George: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| 1Q O/U 63.5 | 49% |
| 4Q O/U 57.5 | 49% |
| Wizards vs. Bulls | 48% |
| Caleb Wilson: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 7.5 | 48% |
| Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 48% |
| Kyshawn George: Points O/U 29.5 | 48% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -12.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -18.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -15.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 48% |
| Wizards O/U 122.5 | 48% |
| Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 17.5 | 47% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 34.5 | 47% |
| Josh Giddey: Points O/U 24.5 | 47% |
| Kyshawn George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 47% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 14.5 | 46% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 9.5 | 46% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 46% |
| Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 46% |
| Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 9.5 | 46% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 5.5 | 46% |
| O/U 246.5 | 45% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 45% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 14.5 | 45% |
| Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 45% |
| Trae Young: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 45% |
| Matas Buzelis: Assists O/U 1.5 | 45% |
| Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| Caleb Wilson: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 44% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 15.5 | 44% |
| Kyshawn George: Points O/U 14.5 | 44% |
| Kyshawn George: Assists O/U 1.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| Spread -3.5 | 43% |
| Trae Young: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 43% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 43% |
| Jalen Smith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 39.5 | 43% |
| 1H O/U 127.5 | 43% |
| Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 11.5 | 42% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 34.5 | 42% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 34.5 | 42% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 42% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 17.5 | 42% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 14.5 | 42% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 42% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 42% |
| Jalen Smith: Points O/U 9.5 | 42% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 42% |
| Anthony Davis: Assists O/U 1.5 | 41% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 9.5 | 41% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 19.5 | 41% |
| Kyshawn George: Points O/U 9.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| Wizards O/U 124.5 | 41% |
| Spread -4.5 | 40% |
| Trae Young: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 40% |
| Josh Giddey: Points O/U 9.5 | 40% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 34.5 | 40% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| O/U 249.5 | 39% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 19.5 | 39% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 39% |
| Trae Young: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 39% |
| Jalen Smith: Assists O/U 1.5 | 39% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| 2Q O/U 63.5 | 39% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 39.5 | 38% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 17.5 | 38% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 7.5 | 38% |
| Kyshawn George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 38% |
| Bulls O/U 126.5 | 38% |
| Spread -4.5 | 37% |
| Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 37% |
| Jalen Smith: Points O/U 14.5 | 37% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 22.5 | 36% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 14.5 | 36% |
| 1H O/U 129.5 | 36% |
| Spread -6.5 | 35% |
| O/U 252.5 | 34% |
| Spread -5.5 | 34% |
| Caleb Wilson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 34% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 6.5 | 34% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 9.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| Josh Giddey: Points O/U 12.5 | 33% |
| Matas Buzelis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 33% |
| Kyshawn George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 33% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 33% |
| Bulls O/U 128.5 | 33% |
| Wizards 1H O/U 64.5 | 33% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 20.5 | 32% |
| Caleb Wilson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 32% |
| 1Q O/U 61.5 | 32% |
| Spread -6.5 | 31% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 29.5 | 31% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 20.5 | 31% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 31% |
| Kyshawn George: Assists O/U 3.5 | 31% |
| Anthony Davis: Assists O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 24.5 | 29% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 29% |
| Spread -8.5 | 28% |
| Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| Trae Young: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 23.5 | 28% |
| Bulls O/U 130.5 | 28% |
| Spread -9.5 | 27% |
| O/U 255.5 | 27% |
| 1Q O/U 65.5 | 27% |
| 2Q O/U 65.5 | 27% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 24.5 | 26% |
| Jalen Smith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 26% |
| Wizards O/U 130.5 | 26% |
| Kyshawn George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 25% |
| Spread -10.5 | 24% |
| Spread -9.5 | 23% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 24.5 | 23% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 19.5 | 23% |
| Josh Giddey: Points O/U 14.5 | 23% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 22% |
| Josh Giddey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 22% |
| 1H O/U 131.5 | 22% |
| Bulls O/U 132.5 | 22% |
| 1H O/U 133.5 | 21% |
| Wizards O/U 132.5 | 21% |
| Spread -11.5 | 20% |
| Spread -12.5 | 19% |
| Matas Buzelis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 19% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 19% |
| Spread -12.5 | 18% |
| Trae Young: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 18% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 11.5 | 18% |
| Jalen Smith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 18% |
| 1H O/U 135.5 | 18% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 17% |
| Caleb Wilson: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 17% |
| Anthony Davis: Assists O/U 3.5 | 17% |
| 1H O/U 137.5 | 17% |
| Bulls O/U 134.5 | 17% |
| Spread -14.5 | 16% |
| Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 19.5 | 16% |
| 1H O/U 139.5 | 16% |
| Spread -13.5 | 14% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 29.5 | 14% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 13.5 | 14% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 14% |
| Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 14% |
| Trae Young: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 13% |
| Kyshawn George: Points O/U 19.5 | 13% |
| Kyshawn George: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 13% |
| 1H O/U 141.5 | 13% |
| Spread -15.5 | 12% |
| Spread -16.5 | 12% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 24.5 | 12% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 15.5 | 12% |
| Jalen Smith: Points O/U 19.5 | 12% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 12% |
| Kyshawn George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 12% |
| Caleb Wilson: Assists O/U 3.5 | 11% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 11% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 11% |
| Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 11% |
| Matas Buzelis: Assists O/U 3.5 | 11% |
| Matas Buzelis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 11% |
| Spread -18.5 | 10% |
| Spread -17.5 | 10% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 29.5 | 10% |
| Trae Young: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 10% |
| Norman Powell: Assists O/U 3.5 | 10% |
| Josh Giddey: Points O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| Caleb Wilson: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 10% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 13.5 | 10% |
| Jalen Smith: Points O/U 24.5 | 10% |
| Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 29.5 | 10% |
| Matas Buzelis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 10% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 9% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 29.5 | 9% |
| Spread -20.5 | 8% |
| Spread -19.5 | 8% |
| Trae Young: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 8% |
| Anthony Davis: Assists O/U 5.5 | 8% |
| Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 8% |
| Kyshawn George: Assists O/U 5.5 | 8% |
| Kyshawn George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 8% |
| Matas Buzelis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 8% |
| Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 24.5 | 7% |
| Caleb Wilson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 7% |
| Kyshawn George: Points O/U 24.5 | 7% |
| Jalen Smith: Assists O/U 3.5 | 7% |
| Jalen Smith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 7% |
| Josh Giddey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 7% |
| Spread -22.5 | 6% |
| Spread -21.5 | 6% |
| Jalen Smith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 6% |
| Kyshawn George: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| Spread -23.5 | 5% |
| Spread -25.5 | 5% |
| Caleb Wilson: Assists O/U 5.5 | 5% |
| Kyshawn George: Assists O/U 7.5 | 5% |
| Matas Buzelis: Assists O/U 5.5 | 5% |
| Anthony Davis: Assists O/U 7.5 | 5% |
| Spread -24.5 | 4% |
| Spread -26.5 | 4% |
| Spread -29.5 | 3% |
| Spread -27.5 | 2% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 96% YES probability for Wizards vs. Bulls. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 24 at 8:00PM ET: If the Wizards win, the market will resolve to "Wizards". If the Bulls win, the market will resolve to "Bulls". If the game is postpone…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $227K.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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