Cavaliers vs. Pistons

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Cleveland Cavaliers face the Detroit Pistons in an NBA matchup scheduled for 13 May at 12:00 AM ET. Polymarket currently prices the Cavaliers at 39% implied probability, meaning traders are backing the Pistons at 61%. This pricing reflects the conditional token structure on Polygon, where USDC collateral settles against whichever team's conditional token resolves in-the-money upon final score confirmation.

Historical context matters here: the Cavaliers finished the 2023–24 regular season with a 48–34 record and have maintained competitive depth, whilst the Pistons posted a 52–30 record and have shown stronger recent form. When comparing similar matchups between these franchises over the past two seasons, the Pistons have held a slight edge in head-to-head outcomes. The 61% Pistons probability aligns with their superior win percentage and recent momentum, though the Cavaliers' playoff experience and roster construction keep them within striking distance.

Traders should monitor roster availability in the days preceding the fixture, particularly injury reports released 24 hours before tip-off. Schedule positioning matters too: if either team is in the midst of a back-to-back or extended road trip, fatigue could shift the probability. Recent form through early May will be critical—any significant winning or losing streaks either side enters the game with could trigger repricing on Polymarket. The settlement window closes at 04:00 UTC on 13 May, giving traders a narrow window post-game to confirm the final score before conditional tokens resolve.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.