FC Cincinnati vs. Inter Miami CF

Platform comparison

Market context

FC Cincinnati will host Inter Miami CF in an MLS regular-season fixture on Wednesday, 13 May 2026. The market currently prices this contract at 0% on Polymarket, meaning traders are settling conditional tokens on Polygon at zero USDC value—effectively pricing zero probability that this specific matchup occurs as scheduled. This extreme pricing reflects either a technical issue with the market's setup or genuine uncertainty about whether the fixture will take place.

Historical MLS scheduling has been remarkably stable in recent seasons, with regular-season matches rarely cancelled outright. The 2020 season saw fixture disruptions due to COVID-19, but since 2021 the league has maintained near-complete scheduling integrity. A 0% probability for a fixture three weeks out is unusual unless there are known complications: venue unavailability, league restructuring, or conditional settlement criteria that traders believe cannot be met. Comparable Polymarket sports contracts typically reflect at least 5–15% residual uncertainty for matches scheduled within a month.

Traders should monitor official MLS communications regarding the 2026 schedule, any announcements from either club about facility issues, and the exact settlement criteria encoded in the contract itself. Recent MLS fixture cancellations have been rare, but weather events, labour disputes, or administrative changes could alter the fixture calendar. The settlement window closes 13 May at 23:30 UTC, leaving minimal time for rescheduling if disruptions emerge. Confirmation of the match's confirmed status and venue availability in early May will be critical data points for reassessing this contract's true probability.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.mlssoccer.com/schedule/scores. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.