San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins at **0% YES**, which means the contract is effectively valuing a Giants win at negligible odds despite the game being scheduled for Miami on Polymarket’s referenced slate. On the platform, this event is settled in **USDC** on **Polygon** via conditional tokens, so the market price reflects the crowd’s view of the baseball result rather than a cash exposure to the teams themselves.

That kind of extreme print usually appears only when traders think the listed outcome is impossible, mis-specified, or already decided by the live market feed. Comparable MLB event contracts typically tighten quickly once the line-up, venue and start-time are confirmed, and pre-game moneylines from sportsbook markets are a useful cross-check: Fox Sports had the Giants around **-101** and the Marlins around **-120** in the lead-up to first pitch, which is the opposite of a 0% Giants price in a normal, functioning market.[1][2] ESPN and MLB both list the fixture as a same-day regular-season game at LoanDepot Park, so the basic event appears live rather than cancelled or converted into a make-up spot.[4][5]

For traders, the main catalysts are whether the game was actually completed, whether any official postponement or suspension changes settlement timing, and whether Polymarket’s oracle input matches the final MLB scoreline. If the game was delayed, the contract stays open until completion; if it were cancelled with no make-up or ended tied, it would resolve 50-50 under the market rules. The practical watchlist is the official box score, MLB game status, and any schedule change announcements, because those determine whether the conditional tokens settle on a straight win/loss or a fallback outcome.[1][4][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.