Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing Pittsburgh at 28% YES on USDC-settled, Polygon-based conditional tokens tied to the Pirates’ visit to St. Louis this afternoon, which implies the Cardinals are the clear favourite. That is not a high bar for the underdog: in MLB moneyline terms, a sub-30% price generally needs either a strong pitching mismatch or a recent form edge that has not yet been fully reflected. The contract resolves on the official final result, with postponements staying live until the game is completed, so the practical trade is about who wins the scheduled contest, not the calendar slot.

Recent head-to-head results lean against Pittsburgh. St. Louis swept a four-game series in Pittsburgh last month, including a 10-5 win on 30 April when the Cardinals got to Paul Skenes early, and they also beat the Pirates 7-0 at Busch Stadium on 20 May, with the offence spreading production through the lineup. Even so, these markets can move quickly around starting pitcher confirmations and late lineup changes, and Pittsburgh’s price will tend to be most sensitive if the club can point to a stronger-than-expected arm or a rested bullpen after a low-scoring game.

For traders watching the contract, the main catalysts are the confirmed starters, any last-minute rest decisions, and bullpen availability after the clubs’ recent series work. MLB.com’s scoreboard and team pages, plus official line-up cards closer to first pitch, are the key checks because the market settles on the completed game and not on pre-match sentiment. If the game is delayed, the token remains open until it is played; if it is washed out without a make-up, settlement goes 50-50 under the market rules.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.