Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Colorado Rockies travel to Arizona to face the Diamondbacks on 24 May at 4:10 PM ET, with Polymarket currently pricing a Rockies victory at 1% (approximately 100:1 odds). This extreme underdog positioning reflects the Diamondbacks' superior roster construction and recent form, though the 1% floor suggests traders are pricing in genuine uncertainty rather than treating the outcome as predetermined.

Historically, single-game MLB markets at this probability level have resolved to the underdog roughly 2–3% of the time across large sample sizes, indicating some overconfidence in the favourite. The Rockies' Coors Field advantage is absent here, and they typically struggle in road matchups against competitive NL West opponents. However, baseball's inherent volatility—where a single pitcher's performance or injury can shift expected win probability by 5–10 percentage points—means the 1% quote reflects Polymarket's conditional token mechanics pricing in tail-risk scenarios rather than fundamental dismissal of a Rockies win.

Traders should monitor starting pitcher announcements, which often arrive 24–48 hours before game time and can materially shift market prices. Recent injury reports from both clubs' rosters, particularly among position players, warrant attention given the tight settlement window ending 31 May. Weather conditions at Chase Field and any late roster moves by either team could trigger repricing. The market's current depth on Polygon suggests limited liquidity at the 1% level, meaning modest USDC positions could move the quoted probability noticeably if fresh information emerges.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.