Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the Cleveland Guardians–Houston Astros contract at **0% YES** for Cleveland, while Houston is trading around **56¢**, which implies the market expects an Astros win on the conditional token set settled in **USDC on Polygon**. For a user holding the Cleveland side, that means the contract is currently being treated as effectively out of the money, even though the event itself is still subject to the final official MLB result and any postponement or make-up-game mechanics in the market rules.[5]

That near-zero Cleveland price looks far removed from the broader pre-game framing from conventional bookmakers, who still had Houston favoured but not overwhelmingly so: one June preview put the Astros at **54.9%** to win, while Action Network’s June 20 board showed Houston at **-156** and Cleveland at **+131**, with a 36–42 Astros record against a 41–36 Guardians side.[1][2] In practice, that kind of gap matters on Polymarket because the contract does not pay on run line or total; it resolves only on who wins the game outright, or 50-50 if the game is cancelled or tied under the market rules.[5]

For traders, the main catalysts are straightforward: confirmed starting pitchers, late line-up changes, and any weather or scheduling updates that could push the game into a postponement or make-up scenario before the settlement window closes on 2026-06-28T18:10:00Z.[2][6] ESPN also showed odds suspensions in related Guardians-Astros listings, which is a reminder that live pricing can move sharply once sportsbooks pull markets around lineup confirmation or in-game uncertainty; on-chain, the Polymarket position still sits as a conditional token outcome until official final stats settle the market.[7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.