Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Cleveland–Detroit game at 16% for Cleveland, so the market is treating a Guardians win as a clear long shot. On Polymarket, that means USDC is being used to buy conditional tokens on Polygon that settle at 1 USDC if Cleveland wins and 0 if Detroit wins, subject to the market’s cancellation and tie rules. The contract expires with the game result, and the current price implies the Tigers remain the dominant side despite the two teams meeting again in a tightly watched divisional spot.

Recent history gives the price some context. The clubs are long-time American League Central rivals, with Detroit holding only a narrow all-time series edge, and they split the 2024 and 2025 postseason meetings. More immediately, Cleveland has already taken the first two games of this series in Detroit, including a 4-3 win in the latest game highlighted by MLB’s official recap. That makes the 16% Cleveland line look more like a live underdog position than a pure formality, even if the Tigers still carry the stronger win probability.

For traders, the main watch-points are confirmed line-ups, starting pitcher announcements, and any late injury or rest news before first pitch at Comerica Park. ESPN’s odds page and MLB’s official game information are the quickest checks for movement driven by scratches or a pitching change, while the market itself will only settle once the final official result is recorded. Because the contract remains open if the game is postponed, the key dependency is whether the scheduled Thursday afternoon start is actually completed as planned.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.