Market statistics
- Total volume
- $469K
- 24h volume
- $467K
- Open interest
- $372K
Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Available prediction outcomes (16)
Sorted by descending live probability. Click any outcome to trade it on PolyGram.
Market context
The Baltimore Orioles face the Boston Red Sox on 2 June at 6:45 PM ET in an American League East matchup. On Polymarket, this contract is currently priced at 100% YES, indicating the market perceives certainty that the game will occur and resolve to one team or the other rather than being postponed, cancelled, or ending in a tie. The conditional token structure on Polygon means traders hold USDC-denominated positions that settle based on official MLB final statistics, with the settlement window extending to 9 June to accommodate any scheduling delays.
Historical precedent suggests such extreme pricing typically reflects either minimal perceived risk of postponement during early June weather conditions in the Northeast, or insufficient liquidity depth to move the market from its initial seeding. The Red Sox and Orioles play 19 games annually in the regular season, with June fixtures rarely affected by weather-related cancellations compared to April or September scheduling complications.
Traders should monitor weather forecasts for the Boston area in the days preceding the fixture, as thunderstorms or severe conditions could trigger postponement. Roster announcements regarding key players' availability—particularly starting pitchers or position players with recent injuries—typically emerge 24–48 hours before game time and could shift underlying win probability assessments, though the 100% pricing suggests the market is currently pricing only game-occurrence risk rather than competitive outcome uncertainty.
Wikipedia Context
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Baltimore OriolesThe Baltimore Orioles are an American professional baseball team based in Baltimore. The Orioles compete in Major League Baseball (MLB) as a member club of the American League (AL) East Division. As one of the American League's eight charter teams in 1901, the franchise spent its first year as a major league club in Milwaukee as the Milwaukee Brewers before
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Baltimore Orioles minor league players
Below are select minor league players and the rosters of the minor league affiliates of the Baltimore Orioles:
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Baltimore Orioles (1882–1899)The Baltimore Orioles were a 19th-century professional baseball team that competed from 1882 to 1899, first in the American Association and later in the National League. This early Orioles franchise, which featured six players and a manager who were later inducted to the National Baseball Hall of Fame, finished in first place for three consecutive seasons (1
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Baltimore Orioles (1901–1902)The Baltimore Orioles were a Major League Baseball team that played in Baltimore from 1901 to 1902. A charter member of the American League (AL), the team only lasted two seasons before folding after the 1902 season. The team was replaced the following season with the New York Highlanders, known since 1913 as the New York Yankees.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.mlb.com/. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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