Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| ITF Denia: Oscar Jose Gutierrez vs Eric Vanshelboim | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| ITF Denia: Oscar Jose Gutierrez vs Eric Vanshelboim Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| ITF Denia: Oscar Jose Gutierrez vs Eric Vanshelboim Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| ITF Denia: Oscar Jose Gutierrez vs Eric Vanshelboim Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| ITF Denia: Oscar Jose Gutierrez vs Eric Vanshelboim Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| ITF Denia: Oscar Jose Gutierrez vs Eric Vanshelboim Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| ITF Denia: Oscar Jose Gutierrez vs Eric Vanshelboim Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| ITF Denia: Oscar Jose Gutierrez vs Eric Vanshelboim Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| ITF Denia: Oscar Jose Gutierrez vs Eric Vanshelboim Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| ITF Denia: Oscar Jose Gutierrez vs Eric Vanshelboim Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| ITF Denia: Oscar Jose Gutierrez vs Eric Vanshelboim Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| ITF Denia: Oscar Jose Gutierrez vs Eric Vanshelboim Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| ITF Denia: Oscar Jose Gutierrez vs Eric Vanshelboim Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| ITF Denia: Oscar Jose Gutierrez vs Eric Vanshelboim Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for ITF Denia: Oscar Jose Gutierrez vs Eric Vanshelboim. This market refers to the tennis match between Oscar Jose Gutierrez and Eric Vanshelboim in the ITF Men Denia, originally scheduled for July 23, 2026 at 3:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Oscar …
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade ITF Denia: Oscar Jose Gutierrez vs Eric Vanshelboim on Kalshi UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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