Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Emma Navarro vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Emma Navarro vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto Set 2 Winner | 75% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Emma Navarro vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto | 52% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Emma Navarro vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Emma Navarro vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Emma Navarro vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Emma Navarro vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Emma Navarro vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Emma Navarro vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Emma Navarro vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Emma Navarro vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Emma Navarro vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Emma Navarro vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Emma Navarro vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Emma Navarro vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, mubadala citi dc open: emma navarro vs elisabetta cocciaretto stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Emma Navarro and Elisabetta Cocciaretto in the Mubadala Citi DC Open, originally scheduled for July 29, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This mar…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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