Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Map Handicap: NS (-1.5) vs BBL Esports (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-2.5) vs BBL Esports (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 76% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 76% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 75% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 51% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 51% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 51% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 51% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 51% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-4.5) vs BBL Esports (+4.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-3.5) vs BBL Esports (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-5.5) vs BBL Esports (+5.5) | 38% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-2.5) vs BBL Esports (+2.5) | 25% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-2.5) vs BBL Esports (+2.5) | 25% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-7.5) vs BBL Esports (+7.5) | 25% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-6.5) vs BBL Esports (+6.5) | 25% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-9.5) vs BBL Esports (+9.5) | 25% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-8.5) vs BBL Esports (+8.5) | 25% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-2.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+2.5) | 10% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-2.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+2.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-4.5) vs BBL Esports (+4.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-5.5) vs BBL Esports (+5.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 1% |
| Map Handicap: BBL (-1.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-3.5) vs BBL Esports (+3.5) | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of valorant: nongshim redforce vs bbl esports (bo3) - esports world cup playoffs. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Valorant 3rd place decider match between Nongshim RedForce and BBL Esports in the Esports World Cup Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 12 at 7:00AM ET…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs BBL Esports (BO3) - E… on Kalshi UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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