Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
72% | 28% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
72% | 28% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 72% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 72% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 71% |
| Match Winner | 66% |
| Map 1 Winner | 62% |
| Map 2 Winner | 62% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 62% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 62% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 61% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-2.5) vs Joblife (+2.5) | 49% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-2.5) vs Joblife (+2.5) | 47% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 46% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-2.5) vs Joblife (+2.5) | 45% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs Joblife (+3.5) | 41% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs Joblife (+3.5) | 39% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 39% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs Joblife (+3.5) | 38% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 38% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 38% |
| Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Joblife (+1.5) | 36% |
Market context
The Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Joblife (BO3) - VCT EMEA Play-Ins prediction market currently prices this outcome at 72% YES. This market refers to the Valorant Upper bracket round 1 match between Natus Vincere and Joblife in the VCT EMEA Play-Ins, initially scheduled for August 6 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
Trade Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Joblife (BO3) - VCT EMEA … on Kalshi UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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