Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-3.5) vs AG.AL International (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-3.5) vs AG.AL International (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-2.5) vs AG.AL International (+2.5) | 99% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-5.5) vs AG.AL International (+5.5) | 99% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-4.5) vs AG.AL International (+4.5) | 99% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-6.5) vs AG.AL International (+6.5) | 99% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-7.5) vs AG.AL International (+7.5) | 99% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-8.5) vs AG.AL International (+8.5) | 99% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 99% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 99% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-2.5) vs AG.AL International (+2.5) | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-4.5) vs AG.AL International (+4.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-5.5) vs AG.AL International (+5.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-6.5) vs AG.AL International (+6.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-7.5) vs AG.AL International (+7.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-2.5) vs AG.AL International (+2.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-4.5) vs AG.AL International (+4.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-2.5) vs MIBR LOS (+2.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 28.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 29.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-2.5) vs MIBR LOS (+2.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 3% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 1% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-3.5) vs AG.AL International (+3.5) | 1% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 1% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 1% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 1% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-9.5) vs AG.AL International (+9.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: MIBR LOS (-1.5) vs AG.AL International (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map Handicap: AG.AL (-1.5) vs MIBR LOS (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, valorant: mibr los vs ag.al international (bo3) - esports world cup group d stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the Valorant Decider match between MIBR LOS and AG.AL International in the Esports World Cup Group D, initially scheduled for July 7 at 7:00AM ET. This marke…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Valorant: MIBR LOS vs AG.AL International (BO3) - Es… on Kalshi UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →