UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, Prelims)

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Market context

Theodor Berggren faces Daniil Donchenko tonight in a welterweight prelims bout at UFC Fight Night in Baku, Azerbaijan, with Donchenko entering as the clear favourite after winning his first two UFC contests. On Polymarket, the contract for Berggren to win sits at a 0% implied probability, priced in USDC on the Polygon network using conditional tokens, reflecting the market’s near-total confidence in Donchenko’s superiority as a striker with one-punch knockout power[1][2].

Historically, such extreme odds in UFC prelims often precede decisive finishes, particularly when a fighter like Donchenko, with a 14-2 record and a 9:44 average fight time, meets an underdog riding a streak outside the organisation[1][5]. Comparable cases from recent UFC Fight Nights show that when a fighter holds a -500 betting advantage and a two-fight win streak, the outcome typically resolves within the first round, frequently by TKO, as analysts predicted for this matchup[1][2].

Traders should monitor the official fight result announcement, which will be released shortly after the bout concludes, as the market resolves strictly on UFC official data[4]. Any delay in the result, a No Contest ruling, or a technical draw would shift the settlement to 50-50, a dependency clearly outlined in the contract rules[4]. With the fight scheduled for 2:40 pm local time, the resolution window closes before the settlement deadline on 28 June, ensuring on-chain settlement aligns with the real-world outcome[2][6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.