IF Elfsborg vs. IK Sirius

Platform comparison

Market context

IF Elfsborg and IK Sirius met at Borås Arena on Sunday, 19 July 2026, in an Allsvenskan fixture that has already concluded with a 4–3 Elfsborg victory, rendering the Polymarket contract for this outcome settled at 0% YES before the settlement window closed[5]. On Polymarket, traders price this contract using USDC on the Polygon network, where conditional tokens lock exposure until the official result is confirmed; the current 0% implied probability reflects the market’s recognition that the event is past and the outcome is no longer uncertain[1].

Historically, Elfsborg has held a slight edge in this head-to-head series, winning eight of the previous 20 meetings while Sirius secured nine wins and three draws, suggesting that a narrow Elfsborg win was a plausible but not dominant outcome before the match[6]. In comparable Allsvenskan fixtures where the home side was favoured by around 120–150 on the money line, contracts with similar pre-match pricing often moved sharply once the final whistle confirmed the result, with late liquidity evaporating as settlement became imminent[1].

Traders should monitor official Allsvenskan match reports and club announcements for any post-match disciplinary actions or goal validations that could affect settlement, though ESPN’s live score already confirms the 4–3 result[1]. With the settlement window ending on 2026-07-19T14:30:00Z and the match already played, no new catalysts will alter the outcome; the on-chain mechanism will automatically resolve the conditional tokens based on the verified result[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track IF Elfsborg vs. IK Sirius across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.