Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Djurgardens IF O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Djurgardens IF 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Degerfors IF O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Degerfors IF O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Degerfors IF O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Djurgardens IF O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Djurgardens IF O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Degerfors IF 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Degerfors IF 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Djurgardens IF 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Djurgardens IF 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| O/U 1.5 | 13% |
| Degerfors IF (-1.5) | 12% |
| Djurgardens IF (-1.5) | 8% |
| Both Teams to Score | 6% |
| Djurgardens IF (-2.5) | 4% |
| O/U 2.5 | 4% |
| O/U 3.5 | 4% |
| Degerfors IF (-2.5) | 1% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Degerfors IF 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Degerfors IF 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Djurgardens IF 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Degerfors IF travel to face Djurgardens IF on 25 July in the Swedish Allsvenskan, with Polymarket currently pricing the "More Markets" contract at 12% YES. This settlement hinges on whether additional betting or derivative markets materialise around the fixture before the 13:00 UTC deadline—a narrower proposition than backing either team's result. The contract reflects demand for expanded liquidity pools on secondary platforms; at present, the crowd estimates such markets remain unlikely to launch in the window available.
Allsvenskan fixtures typically attract modest ancillary market creation compared to top-five European leagues, though recent seasons have seen incremental growth in conditional token offerings around mid-table clashes. Djurgardens' status as a Stockholm heavyweight occasionally triggers deeper market depth, yet Degerfors' relative profile as a smaller club has historically suppressed derivative interest. The 12% probability aligns with baseline expectations for a fixture of this tier; comparable matches in June and early July saw similar or lower probabilities realised, with most additional markets failing to materialise within settlement windows.
Traders should monitor Polymarket's own activity feed and linked platforms for announcements regarding Allsvenskan coverage expansion. Fixture confirmation and team news typically arrive 48–72 hours before kickoff; any major injury, suspension, or tactical shift affecting Djurgardens could theoretically prompt market operators to broaden offerings. The settlement window's tight closure at 13:00 UTC on match day itself constrains the practical window for new market launches, effectively capping upside probability movement unless operators signal intent well in advance.
Methodology
This page reviews Degerfors IF vs. Djurgardens IF - More Markets across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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