Falkirk FC vs. St Mirren FC

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Falkirk FC v St Mirren FC contract at **0% YES**, which means the on-chain market on Polygon, settled in USDC through conditional tokens, is currently assigning no visible probability to the match meeting the market’s exact wording. In practical terms, that makes the contract look like a dead price unless liquidity reappears or the settlement interpretation changes.

Historically, this fixture has not been one-sided enough to justify a literal zero in the football sense. Falkirk have the better recent head-to-head record overall, with 8 wins in the last 14 meetings compared with St Mirren’s 2, while their most recent league meetings in 2025-26 split both ways, including Falkirk’s 2-0 away win in January and St Mirren’s 2-1 home win in September.[4][7][8] BBC’s recent stat pack also noted Falkirk had won four of their previous six league matches and that St Mirren had been winless in 12 away league games, so the market’s 0% is better read as a contract-price artefact than a clean football forecast.[14]

For a trader, the main catalysts are the final competition status, line-ups, and any late team-news that could affect how the market defines the event at settlement. The fixture is listed for 1 August 2026 across live-score and fixture pages, but the decisive question on Polymarket is whether the scheduled Scottish Premiership match is actually played as described and captured by the oracle at the settlement window end.[1][5][13] If there are postponements, venue changes, or changes to the competition designation, those details matter more here than raw match form because the contract resolves on the specified event, not on broader season expectations.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Falkirk FC vs. St Mirren FC across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.