Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Celtic FC O/U 0.5 | 99% |
| O/U 1.5 | 82% |
| Celtic FC O/U 1.5 | 64% |
| Celtic FC (-1.5) | 55% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 51% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Celtic FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Celtic FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Dundee FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Dundee FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Dundee FC O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Dundee FC O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| O/U 2.5 | 33% |
| Celtic FC O/U 2.5 | 27% |
| Celtic FC (-2.5) | 21% |
| Both Teams to Score | 20% |
| Dundee FC O/U 0.5 | 20% |
| O/U 3.5 | 11% |
| O/U 4.5 | 5% |
| Dundee FC (-1.5) | 1% |
| Dundee FC (-2.5) | 1% |
| O/U 5.5 | 1% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Celtic FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Celtic FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Dundee FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Dundee FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Celtic v Dundee is trading at **55% YES** on Polymarket, so the market is pricing a slight lean towards one of the listed “more markets” outcomes being resolved in the affirmative rather than treating it as a clear-cut certainty. On Polymarket, that price is not a sportsbook line: it reflects demand for **USDC**-denominated exposure on **Polygon**, with the contract settled through **conditional tokens** once the match-related criteria are confirmed.
For context, the head-to-head record heavily favours Celtic, which is why a mid-range probability can look conservative compared with raw historical results. Across the published match and head-to-head data, Celtic have won the vast majority of recent meetings, including 44 wins in 53 direct matches in one dataset and 27 wins in 33 in another, while Dundee have only a handful of victories overall.[8][15] Recent scorelines have still shown some volatility — Celtic beat Dundee 2-1 in April 2026, but there have also been higher-scoring draws and occasional Dundee resistance — so traders tend to read these markets through team news and match-state risk, not just the long-run record.[6][18]
The main catalysts to watch are the final line-ups, any late injury or rotation news, and whether the market’s exact settlement wording depends on a particular official data feed or kick-off confirmation rather than the broader result alone. BBC Sport and ESPN both have the fixture listed for 3 August 2026, which is useful for verifying the scheduled timing against the settlement window, while live scores from Soccerway and Flashscore are the practical reference points once play begins.[1][2][12] For a Polymarket user, the key question is whether the on-chain market mechanics and the real-world event definition stay aligned through full-time and any extra conditions embedded in the contract.
Methodology
This page reviews Celtic FC vs. Dundee FC - More Markets across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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