SK Brann vs. IK Start

Platform comparison

Market context

SK Brann defeated IK Start 2–1 in their Eliteserien clash at Brann Stadion on Sunday, 12 July 2026, confirming the outcome that the prediction market has priced at 100% YES since the event concluded. The match, which kicked off at 15:00 UTC, saw Noah Jean Holm score for the hosts, sealing a victory that aligns with Brann’s historical dominance in this fixture [3][5].

Historically, Brann holds a strong edge against Start, having won eight of their previous 16 meetings, while Start secured only four wins and four matches ended in draws [2]. This head-to-head record, combined with Brann’s status as overwhelming favourites priced at -286 by bookmakers (implying a 74% win probability), frames why the market settled decisively once the final whistle blew [4]. The 1–0 result from their last encounter further reinforced Brann’s consistency in this matchup before the 2–1 outcome this time [2].

For traders reviewing on-chain mechanics, the contract settled automatically via conditional tokens on Polygon, with USDC payouts distributed once the oracle confirmed the final score. No further catalysts remain, as the settlement window closed immediately post-match. The result was widely reported by major sports outlets including ESPN and Fox Sports, eliminating ambiguity for market participants [3][5]. With the game now complete and the outcome verified, the 100% YES probability reflects a resolved event rather than an active forecast.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track SK Brann vs. IK Start across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.