Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Tromsø IL (-1.5) | 100% |
| Tromsø IL (-2.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Aalesunds FK O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Aalesunds FK O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Tromsø IL O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Tromsø IL O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Tromsø IL O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Aalesunds FK 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Tromsø IL 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Aalesunds FK 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Tromsø IL 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Tromsø IL 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Aalesunds FK (-1.5) | 0% |
| Aalesunds FK (-2.5) | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Aalesunds FK O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Aalesunds FK 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Tromsø IL 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Aalesunds FK 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Polymarket is pricing the **“More Markets”** contract on Aalesunds FK v Tromsø IL at **0% YES** right now, which means the market is effectively saying no additional sub-market will settle true before the 2026-08-02 15:00 UTC window closes. On-chain, that view is expressed through USDC-backed trading on Polygon, with the contract resolving via conditional tokens rather than the football result itself.
For context, the underlying match has been read by preview models as fairly balanced, with Tromsø often given a narrow edge and draw outcomes priced as live possibilities. Sports Mole puts Tromsø’s win chance at 45.02%, with Aalesund at 29.14% and the draw at 25.81%, while FootballCritic’s preview of the earlier meeting ended 1-1 and FootyStats shows a mixed head-to-head record over recent meetings.[14][17][2] That matters because a 0% price on a “more markets” contract is usually less about the teams and more about whether the event page produces any qualifying ancillary settlement items at all.
The main catalysts for a trader are official market definitions, the final match listing, and any last-minute changes to kick-off, venue, or settlement rules before the window closes. Line-ups are usually confirmed about an hour before kick-off, but for this contract the more important dependency is whether the event organiser publishes any extra adjudicatable markets in time, since Polymarket settlement follows the defined market rules rather than live scorelines.[9][3]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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