St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Cardinals travel to New York for a regular-season matchup against the Mets on 9 June at 7:10 PM ET. Polymarket currently prices this contract at 100% YES, reflecting a market-wide consensus that one team will definitively win. The settlement window extends to 16 June, allowing for postponement scenarios common in early summer baseball when weather disruptions occur along the eastern seaboard.

Historical precedent suggests such lopsided pricing in baseball matchups typically reflects either missing information or a technical artefact. Single-game MLB contracts rarely trade at absolute certainty unless one team is mathematically eliminated from playoff contention or a starting pitcher has withdrawn. The 2024 regular season saw comparable Cardinals-Mets fixtures resolve without incident, though June weather patterns in the Northeast have historically produced postponements at rates between 2–4% for scheduled games. The conditional token structure on Polygon means traders holding YES positions receive full USDC settlement only if the game concludes with a winner; tie or cancellation scenarios trigger the 50-50 split mechanism, which currently holds zero market value.

Key catalysts include official pitcher announcements, typically confirmed 24 hours before first pitch, and National Weather Service forecasts for the New York area during the settlement window. Recent MLB scheduling data shows the Mets' home venue has experienced weather-related delays in early June roughly once per season. Traders should monitor whether either team enters the game with roster depletion from injuries or trades, as such developments occasionally shift implied probabilities in single-game contracts closer to settlement.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.