Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Seattle Mariners and Pittsburgh Pirates faced off in their MLB game on June 24 at 6:40PM ET, with the Mariners holding a 41–39 record and the Pirates at 39–40. In the Polymarket contract for this matchup, the current price shows a 0% probability for the Mariners to win, implying the market expects the Pirates to take the victory outright. This conditional token, settled in USDC on the Polygon network, reflects on-chain liquidity that has overwhelmingly backed the Pirates, treating the Mariners’ win as virtually impossible given the pre-game odds and team form.

Historically, similar 0% pricing in MLB prediction markets has occurred when one team is significantly favoured by moneyline odds and recent performance, such as when the Pirates were 3–2 in their last five games while the Mariners struggled on the road against the spread[1]. In those cases, the market’s extreme confidence often proved accurate, with the favoured team winning by multiple runs, reinforcing how conditional tokens can crystallise trader consensus before the event concludes. The 0% figure here mirrors past instances where the underdog’s win probability was deemed negligible due to stark disparities in batting averages and run production[2].

Traders should monitor any post-game official statistics updates from MLB, as the market resolves only on the recognised final score[3]. Key catalysts include potential injury announcements or pitching changes that could alter the outcome, though the game has already been played. Recent coverage notes the Pirates’ strong road performance against the spread and their 21–18 record in such games, which likely underpins the current pricing[1]. With the settlement window ending on 1 July 2026, the USDC payout will be distributed once the official result is confirmed on-chain.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.