New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers

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Market context

The New York Yankees face the Detroit Tigers tonight in a pivotal MLB game at 6:40PM ET, with the market currently pricing a 46% chance of a Yankees victory. On Polymarket, this conditional token trades against USDC on the Polygon network, reflecting a crowd-implied probability that sits just below the 50% threshold, suggesting traders view the Tigers as the slight favourite despite the Yankees’ historical resilience in close series.

Historically, games where the home team is favoured by roughly -130 to -145 on the moneyline, as the Tigers are here, often see the underdog win 45–48% of the time, particularly when the total is set low at 7 runs. Comparable cases from the 2024 and 2025 seasons show that when the run line is -1.5 for the home side, the underdog covers the +1.5 spread in nearly half of all outcomes, framing today’s 46% YES price as a rational reflection of volatility rather than a mispricing.

Traders should monitor the starting pitcher announcements released before 5PM ET, as any late change to the Yankees’ rotation could shift the probability significantly. Recent analysis from Action Network notes that the Tigers’ bullpen has been stronger in the second half of innings, making the under 7.5 total a key dependency for this market’s settlement [1]. With the settlement window ending on 1 July 2026, the on-chain mechanics ensure that USDC payouts are executed automatically once the official final statistics are recognised by MLB.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.