New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Yankees travel to Cleveland for a regular-season matchup on 10 June, with the Guardians hosting at Progressive Field. Polymarket currently prices this contract at 98% implied probability for a Yankees victory, reflecting substantial confidence in New York's chances. The settlement window extends to 17 June at 17:10 UTC, allowing for potential postponements or make-up games within that seven-day window. On-chain, this resolves as conditional USDC tokens on Polygon, settling either to the Yankees contract or the Guardians contract upon game completion.

Historical context suggests the Yankees' regular-season record against Cleveland over recent seasons provides the foundation for this pricing. The Yankees have maintained a competitive edge in head-to-head matchups, though the Guardians have emerged as a stronger divisional contender since 2022. A 98% probability reflects not merely roster strength but also the Yankees' consistent performance in non-playoff settings where depth and consistency matter significantly. Comparable regular-season games between these teams over the past two seasons have typically favoured New York, though Cleveland has demonstrated capacity to compete.

Traders should monitor starting pitcher assignments, as these typically release 24–48 hours before first pitch. Injury reports for key position players—particularly any late-breaking developments affecting the Yankees' lineup depth—could shift the contract's price materially. Weather conditions at Progressive Field, including wind direction affecting fly balls, warrant attention given the venue's dimensions. Any postponement would extend the settlement window, potentially introducing new information before the rescheduled game.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.