Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers

Platform comparison

Market context

The Houston Astros defeated the Detroit Tigers 7–5 in their MLB game on 28 June 2026, a result that settles the prediction market with 100% certainty for the Astros. This outcome aligns with pre-game expectations where the Astros entered as 1.5-run favourites with -131 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook[3]. The market’s conditional tokens on Polygon, settled in USDC, now reflect this realised event, locking in the payout for YES holders without further volatility.

Historically, similar MLB markets with 100% crowd-implied probability have resolved decisively when the favoured team covers the run line, as seen when the Astros won by two runs to cover the -1.5 line[8]. In past cases where the favourite won but failed to cover, markets often settled at 50–50, but this game’s margin avoided that ambiguity. The Astros’ 42–44 record and the Tigers’ identical standing[1] suggest a closely matched contest, yet the final score confirmed the Astros’ superiority.

Traders should monitor official MLB injury reports and starting pitcher announcements before future games, as these dependencies directly impact run-line outcomes. Recent DraftKings analysis noted the Astros’ road-favourite status and the Tigers’ underdog positioning, factors that shaped pre-game odds[3]. With the settlement window ending 5 July 2026, no further action is required; the result is finalised per the governing body’s official statistics[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.