Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Houston Astros and Detroit Tigers face off at Comerica Park this afternoon in a regular-season MLB clash scheduled for 1:10 PM ET, with the crowd-implied probability for an Astros win currently sitting at 0% despite the Tigers being priced at 55¢ on Polymarket[1]. This stark divergence between the on-chain conditional token price and the abstract moneyline suggests the market is heavily weighting the Tigers’ recent form, a pattern seen in comparable 2025 matchups where home teams with superior pitching rotations dominated away sides with injury-plagued lineups[2][8]. Historical data from similar June fixtures shows that when a team’s implied probability drops below 5% while the opponent holds a 55% edge, the lower-probability side rarely recovers unless a late pitching change or weather delay alters the conditions[3].

Traders should monitor the official starting pitcher announcements released by MLB.TV just before the game, as any late substitution could shift the USDC liquidity on the Polygon network within minutes[2]. Recent analysis from Jason Sharpe of Doc Sports highlights the Tigers’ advantage in this matchup, citing their 1.24 walks per game against the Astros’ 1.39, a dependency that often dictates the final score in low-total games set at 8.5 runs[4][5]. The settlement window closes on 4 July 2026, but the primary resolution source remains the official final statistics published by the governing body within 24 hours of the event’s conclusion, with consensus reporting used only if those stats are delayed[1]. Any postponement will keep the contract open until completion, while a cancellation or tie would resolve the market at 50-50, a clause that adds a layer of risk for those holding the conditional tokens[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.