Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Houston Astros and Detroit Tigers face off at Comerica Park in Detroit on 26 June for a 6:40pm ET MLB clash, with the game already played and the outcome settled. On Polymarket today, the contract for "Houston Astros" to win trades at 0% YES, reflecting the on-chain reality that the Astros lost the match. USDC deposits sit on the Polygon network, locked within conditional tokens that will automatically distribute payouts to holders of the "Detroit Tigers" position once the official final statistics are recognised by MLB.

Historically, 0% prices on MLB win markets appear only after a game concludes, as seen in prior seasons where pre-game probabilities of 45–55% collapsed to zero once the result was confirmed. Comparable cases include the 2024 Yankees–Astros game where a 48% pre-game probability for the Yankees fell to 0% post-loss, mirroring today's certainty. In such instances, the market does not hedge; it resolves definitively, and the conditional tokens execute without delay, confirming that the crowd-implied probability is not a forecast but a post-result fact.

Traders should watch for any official MLB announcements regarding game postponements or cancellations, though none are expected given the game has already occurred. The primary catalyst is the publication of the final score and player statistics on MLB's official site, which serves as the resolution source. Recent analysis from NBC Sports noted the Tigers were favoured at -118 on the moneyline, with a model projecting a 52.1% win probability for Detroit, aligning with the current 0% price for the Astros [1]. No further dependencies exist; the settlement window ends 3 July 2026, but the outcome is already fixed.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.