Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Houston Astros defeated the Detroit Tigers 2–1 in their June 25 MLB clash at Comerica Park, with Tatsuya Imai striking out 10 batters across six scoreless innings to secure the victory and extend the Astros’ winning streak to three games[5]. This result is now locked in, making the 100% YES crowd-implied probability for the Astros to win the game a factual certainty rather than a speculative forecast.

Historically, prediction markets that resolve to 100% after a game has concluded mirror the behaviour of settled USDC contracts on Polygon, where conditional tokens are automatically redeemed once the governing body’s final statistics confirm the outcome[5]. Comparable cases include prior MLB markets where the on-chain price snapped to 100% immediately after ESPN or MLB’s official box score was published, eliminating any remaining uncertainty for traders holding the winning position[5].

Traders should monitor the settlement window ending 2026-07-02T22:40:00Z to ensure the USDC payout is processed without delay, though no further catalysts exist since the game has already finished[5]. The primary resolution source remains the official final statistics recognised by MLB, which have already confirmed the Astros’ win, meaning no announcements, schedule changes, or injury updates will alter the outcome[5]. Recent coverage from ESPN confirms the final score and player stats, providing the definitive data needed for market settlement[5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.