Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Detroit Tigers travel to Houston on 16 June for an evening matchup against the Astros, with Polymarket currently pricing a Tigers victory at 39% (approximately +157 moneyline odds). The conditional token structure on Polygon means traders holding YES shares receive full payout only if Detroit wins; Houston victory holders collect on their positions through the alternative outcome token. USDC settlement occurs post-game once official MLB statistics confirm the result, with the market remaining open through 24 June to accommodate any postponements.

Detroit's recent form provides context for reading this probability. The Tigers have won 48 of their last 100 games dating to mid-April, placing them in the lower half of AL Central standings. Houston, conversely, sits atop the division with a 52-win pace over the same stretch. Historical matchups between these clubs favour the Astros marginally; Detroit has won just 38% of games against Houston since 2020. The 39% implied probability reflects this structural disadvantage whilst acknowledging Detroit's capacity to compete on any given evening.

Traders should monitor starting pitcher assignments, which typically confirm 24 hours before first pitch. Houston's rotation depth—particularly availability of Framber Valdez or Hunter Brown—materially shifts win probability. Detroit's injury status, particularly regarding outfielder Riley Greene and catcher Jake Rogers, affects offensive output. Weather conditions at Minute Maid Park occasionally favour home-run hitters; humidity and temperature readings on 16 June could influence total runs and thus game outcome. Recent trades or roster moves announced before the settlement window closes may also shift market pricing.

Methodology

This page reviews Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Kalshi UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.