Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Detroit Tigers travel to Houston for a regular-season matchup on 15 June at 8:10 PM ET, with Polymarket pricing the Tigers' victory at 90% (approximately 0.90 USDC per conditional token on Polygon). This implies the Astros are valued at roughly 10% probability, a substantial underdog positioning that reflects either significant underlying expectation favoring Detroit or a liquidity-driven skew in the market's current state.

Historically, the Tigers have struggled against Houston in recent seasons, with the Astros maintaining a winning record in head-to-head matchups since 2020. However, probability markets often overshoot in one direction when liquidity concentrates on a single side. The 90% threshold is notably high for a single regular-season game between two MLB teams; comparable fixtures typically settle between 55–70% depending on pitching matchups, home-field advantage, and recent form. Detroit's current standing in the AL Central and Houston's position in the AL West will matter considerably, though the extreme probability here suggests traders may be pricing in factors beyond standard win-expectancy models.

Traders monitoring this contract should track starting pitcher announcements, which typically arrive 24–48 hours before game time and can materially shift expectations. Injury reports for key position players on both rosters, particularly any developments affecting the Tigers' lineup or Houston's bullpen depth, warrant attention. Weather conditions at Minute Maid Park—particularly humidity and wind direction affecting fly-ball carry—occasionally influence outcomes in June. The settlement window closes 23 June at 00:10 UTC, allowing roughly eight days post-game for official MLB statistics to be confirmed and the conditional tokens to resolve on-chain.

Methodology

We track Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.