Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Detroit Tigers face the Cleveland Guardians on 13 June at 4:10PM ET in an AL Central matchup. Polymarket currently prices the Tigers at 67% implied probability, reflecting a substantial favouring of Detroit in the conditional token market. This pricing sits above the typical moneyline odds found in traditional sportsbooks, where the Tigers have traded between -180 and -200 in recent days—roughly equivalent to a 64–67% win probability. The discrepancy suggests Polymarket traders may be weighting recent form or roster factors more heavily than consensus betting markets.

The Tigers and Guardians have split their last ten meetings, though Detroit holds a marginal edge in 2024 regular-season play. Historical matchups between these division rivals show volatility; neither team has established sustained dominance. The Guardians' 2023 World Series run demonstrated their capacity to perform in high-stakes scenarios, yet their 2024 campaign has been uneven. Detroit's recent trajectory—marked by incremental improvement in run differential—provides some empirical grounding for the current 67% pricing, though it remains sensitive to pitching assignments and injury status.

Traders should monitor starting pitcher announcements, typically confirmed 48 hours before first pitch. Any late roster moves, particularly involving key relievers or position players, could shift conditional token valuations meaningfully. Weather conditions at the venue and travel schedules may also influence game dynamics. Settlement occurs on 20 June, providing a week's buffer after the scheduled game date to accommodate any postponements. The 50–50 tie-resolution clause applies only in the unlikely event of cancellation without a rescheduled makeup game.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.