Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Chicago Cubs have already secured a decisive victory over the New York Mets in the MLB game scheduled for 25 June at Citi Field, ending in a 10-inning 4–0 sweep where the Cubs won at -109 odds[2]. This result is now fully settled on the on-chain market, with Polymarket pricing the Cubs contract at 100¢ (100% implied probability) and the Mets at 0¢, reflecting the final official statistics recognised by MLB[8]. For USDC traders on Polygon using conditional tokens, the contract has resolved definitively, meaning no further price movement or on-chain activity will occur as the settlement window closes on 2 July 2026.

Historically, 100% implied probability in MLB markets has only appeared after games concluded with unambiguous outcomes, such as the Cubs’ prior four-game sweep of the Mets at Wrigley Field before this Citi Field match[3]. Comparable cases show that when a team wins in extra innings with a clear final score, markets freeze instantly, as seen in the Cubs’ 4–0 victory where the Mets lost after 10 innings[2]. The current 100% price aligns with these precedents, confirming the event is no longer speculative but a settled fact.

Traders should monitor official MLB announcements for any rare postponement or cancellation clauses, though the game has already been completed with no make-up needed[2]. Recent coverage from Fox Sports confirms the Cubs’ sweep and final score, eliminating dependency on future updates[2]. With the game resolved and odds static, the only catalyst is the formal closure of the settlement window, after which USDC payouts will be distributed automatically to holders of the Cubs contract.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.