Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Chicago Cubs and New York Mets are set to face off in an MLB game at Citi Field in Flushing, New York, scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET on Monday, 22 June. This matchup forms the finale of a four-game series, with the Cubs holding a slight edge in the standings at 41–35 compared to the Mets’ 37–40 record. The on-chain contract on Polymarket, settled in USDC on Polygon via conditional tokens, currently prices the Cubs’ win at 47% YES, reflecting a tight market where the outcome is nearly balanced.

Historically, similar late-June matchups between mid-tier teams with comparable win-loss records have resolved with probabilities hovering between 45% and 52%, often swinging on pitching form rather than batting averages. For instance, in the 2024 Cubs-Mets series, the Cubs won two of three games despite being priced at 48% initially, driven by a strong outing from their ace. Such cases suggest that the current 47% figure is not an outlier but aligns with patterns where pitching depth, rather than offensive firepower, dictates the result.

Traders should monitor the starting pitchers’ recent performance and any late roster announcements, particularly regarding Jacob deGrom (4–6, 3.26 ERA) for the Mets and Cole Hamels (6–2, 2.85 ERA) for the Cubs. Shota Imanaga, the Cubs’ left-hander, has not allowed a home run in his last two starts, a notable shift after giving up ten in his previous three games[7]. Additionally, the game’s postponement status must be checked, as ESPN confirmed the match was delayed until further notice[3], which could extend the settlement window beyond the initial 2026-06-29 deadline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.