Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
65% | 35% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
65% | 35% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 65% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 65% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 62% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 57% |
| Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Team Vitality (+1.5) | 56% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 56% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 52% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 52% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 46% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 46% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 41% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 40% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 37% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 30% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 30% |
| Game 2 Winner | 28% |
| Game 1 Winner | 27% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Match Winner | 19% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 19% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 19% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 16% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 16% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, lol: team vitality vs g2 esports (bo3) - lec regular season stands at 65% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the LoL match between Team Vitality and G2 Esports in the LEC Regular Season, initially scheduled for July 25 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Tea…
Methodology
We track LoL: Team Vitality vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Trade LoL: Team Vitality vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular… on Kalshi UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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