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LoL: T1 vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs

Five-platform snapshot of "LoL: T1 vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

Match Winner 98% Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs FURIA Esports (+1.5) 97% Game 1 Winner 92% Game 2 Winner 92% Volume: $147K Liquidity: $467K Closes: 6 Jul 2026
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LoL: T1 vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi UK) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
98% 2% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
98% 2% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Match Winner98%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs FURIA Esports (+1.5)97%
Game 1 Winner92%
Game 2 Winner92%
Game 3 Winner92%
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs FURIA Esports (+2.5)79%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon69%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon68%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?65%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?64%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3?63%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?63%
Game 4 Winner59%
Odd/Even Total Kills55%
Odd/Even Total Kills55%
First Blood in Game 1?53%
Odd/Even Total Kills51%
Odd/Even Total Kills51%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor51%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors51%
Any Player Quadra Kill51%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor51%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors51%
Any Player Quadra Kill51%
Any Player Penta Kill51%
First Blood in Game 2?51%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4?51%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
First Blood in Game 4?50%
First Blood in Game 3?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor49%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors49%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors49%
Any Player Penta Kill49%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors49%
Any Player Penta Kill49%
Odd/Even Total Kills49%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon49%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon49%
Any Player Penta Kill48%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?47%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4?30%
O/U 3.5 Games21%
O/U 4.5 Games4%

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 98% YES probability for LoL: T1 vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket round 1 match between T1 and FURIA Esports in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 6 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve t…

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
and

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