Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
77% | 23% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
77% | 23% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 77% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3? | 77% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 77% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 71% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 65% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 64% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 63% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 63% |
| Match Winner | 60% |
| Game 1 Winner | 56% |
| Game 2 Winner | 56% |
| Game 3 Winner | 56% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 56% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? | 56% |
| Game 4 Winner | 54% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 54% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 53% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 53% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 53% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 53% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 53% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 53% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 52% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 52% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 52% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 5? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 5? | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4? | 50% |
| Game Handicap: IG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) | 41% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 33% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 30% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 30% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 29% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 29% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 25% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 25% |
| Game Handicap: IG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) | 19% |
Market context
Market consensus: 77% chance of lol: invictus gaming vs team we (bo5) - lpl playoffs. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket quarterfinal 1 match between Invictus Gaming and Team WE in the LPL Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 6, 2026 at 2:00 AM ET. …
Methodology
This page reviews LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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