Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ulsan HD FC (-1.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Ulsan HD FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Ulsan HD FC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Ulsan HD FC O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| FC Anyang O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Ulsan HD FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Ulsan HD FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FC Anyang 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Anyang (-1.5) | 0% |
| Ulsan HD FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| FC Anyang (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Anyang O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Anyang O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Ulsan HD FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Ulsan HD FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Anyang 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| FC Anyang 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Anyang 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Ulsan HD’s meeting with FC Anyang is live on Polymarket as a **100% YES** contract, which on the platform means traders are already paying up to the ceiling in USDC on Polygon for the conditional token to resolve in the affirmative. In practical terms, the market is pricing the listed “More Markets” condition as fully satisfied, so there is no visible room for the crowd to express a contrary view unless fresh information changes the settlement path before the window closes.
That reading sits alongside a mixed but useful recent history. The clubs drew 1-1 in April 2026, while Anyang also beat Ulsan 3-1 in November 2025, and broader head-to-head data show a short series with no long-run dominance firmly established yet.[5][10][13] Comparable match data also point to both sides scoring fairly often in recent games, with Anyang scoring in eight of its last nine and Ulsan in five of its last six, which helps explain why traders have been willing to push a full-probability price into the market.[2]
For a Polymarket user, the catalysts are less about in-game performance and more about whether the match proceeds exactly as the contract expects before the 2026-08-02 10:30 UTC settlement deadline. The key checks are official team sheets, any pre-match postponement or venue change, and competition scheduling from the K League, because a delay or rescheduling is what would matter for conditional-token resolution rather than the scoreline itself.[1][6][7] No major late-breaking team news is evident in the available match listings, so the main trader watchpoint is confirmation that the fixture kicks off as scheduled and is recorded cleanly by the market’s oracle source.[1][6]
Methodology
We track Ulsan HD FC vs. FC Anyang - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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