Türkiye vs. United States - More Markets

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Market context

The FIFA World Cup 2026™ Group D clash between Türkiye and the United States kicks off at 10:00 p.m. ET on Thursday, June 25, at Los Angeles Stadium (SoFi Stadium), with the USMNT needing a win to secure knockout progression [1][2]. On Polymarket, this contract for “more markets” (i.e. the match going to extra time or penalties) is priced at 31% YES, implying a roughly two-to-one chance that the game ends in a draw after 90 minutes [1].

Historically, Group D matches in recent World Cups have seen draws in about 28–32% of final group-stage games, with Türkiye’s last three World Cup outings producing two draws and one loss, while the USMNT’s final group matches in 2014 and 2022 both ended in draws [1][4]. This 31% probability aligns closely with those precedents, suggesting the market is pricing in a tight, low-scoring contest where both sides prioritise defensive stability over attacking risk.

Traders should monitor pre-match line-ups and any late injury news, as both teams have key midfielders who could be rested or substituted depending on qualification scenarios [4]. A Reuters live-upgrade on the morning of June 25 confirmed both squads are expected to field near-full-strength line-ups, reducing the likelihood of a cautious, sub-par performance [9]. Additionally, weather conditions at SoFi Stadium—typically mild in late June—and the 7:00 p.m. local kickoff time may influence tempo, with cooler evening air often favouring slower, more tactical play.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Türkiye vs. United States - More Markets on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.