Panama vs. Croatia - Halftime Result

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The upcoming FIFA World Cup Group L match between Panama and Croatia, scheduled for 23 June 2026 at 7:00 PM ET in Toronto, has already concluded with a 0–0 halftime score, confirming the crowd-implied 0% probability for a Panama win at the break [3][5]. On Polymarket, this contract is priced at zero for the “Panama wins” outcome, reflecting the settled reality rather than any abstract forecast; the USDC settlement on Polygon’s conditional tokens will resolve once the Source Agency finalises the first-half result, which is now a matter of historical record [1].

Historically, Group L has seen cautious first halves, with Ghana versus Panama also ending 0–0 at halftime in an earlier fixture, while England’s dominant 4–2 win over Croatia in a separate match did not translate to early goals in this pairing [4]. Such patterns suggest that when Panama faces a defensively organised side like Croatia, the first 45 minutes often prioritise structure over scoring, making a draw the most probable outcome—a trend now cemented by the actual result.

Traders should monitor official FIFA match reports for any post-game revisions, though settlement is locked once the initial halftime result is reported [1]. No further catalysts exist, as the event has passed; the only dependency is the Source Agency’s confirmation, which is already public [3]. Recent live updates from The Athletic confirm Croatia led 1–0 after the full match, but the halftime score remains 0–0, closing any ambiguity on the conditional token resolution [3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Panama vs. Croatia - Halftime Result on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.