Haiti vs. Scotland - More Markets

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Haiti and Scotland will meet in a FIFA World Cup qualifier on 13 June 2026 at 9:00 PM ET. The current Polymarket pricing reflects a 5% probability that additional markets will be created for this fixture, with traders valuing YES at roughly 0.05 USDC per conditional token on Polygon. Settlement hinges on whether Polymarket's operators launch supplementary betting contracts beyond the standard match outcome, over/under, and spread markets typically offered for World Cup games.

Historical precedent suggests Polymarket expands its fixture coverage selectively. During the 2022 Qatar World Cup, the platform created extended market clusters for high-profile matches—particularly those involving major football nations or drawing substantial trading volume—whilst smaller fixtures received minimal additional contracts. Haiti's participation in World Cup qualification represents their first appearance since 2018, and Scotland has qualified for two consecutive tournaments. The pairing's relative obscurity in global betting markets, combined with the modest liquidity typically seen in CONCACAF versus UEFA qualifier matchups, provides context for why traders currently price the probability of expanded markets so low.

Catalysts affecting settlement include Polymarket's internal scheduling decisions, which depend partly on anticipated trading demand and platform capacity. The fixture's positioning in the qualification calendar and any late-breaking developments affecting either nation's squad could influence whether operators deem additional markets commercially viable. Traders should monitor Polymarket's official announcements and the platform's market creation patterns in the weeks preceding the match, as decisions are often made closer to fixture dates rather than months in advance.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.