Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots | 95% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots | 90% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots | 85% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ shots | 75% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ shots | 71% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots | 66% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 1+ shots | 65% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ shots | 62% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals + assists | 62% |
| Rodri: 1+ shots | 57% |
| Pedri: 1+ shots | 55% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals + assists | 55% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals + assists | 52% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots | 52% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Patrick Pentz: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Patrick Pentz: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Unai Simón: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals | 48% |
| Unai Simón: 4+ saves | 48% |
| Unai Simón: 5+ saves | 48% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 2+ goals | 48% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 2+ goals | 48% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 5+ shots | 48% |
| Paul Wanner: 2+ assists | 48% |
| Romano Schmid: 2+ assists | 48% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Carney Chukwuemeka: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Carney Chukwuemeka: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Konrad Laimer: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Nico Williams: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Paul Wanner: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Paul Wanner: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Pedri: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Romano Schmid: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Konrad Laimer: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Konrad Laimer: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Konrad Laimer: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Paul Wanner: 1+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Paul Wanner: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Paul Wanner: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Paul Wanner: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Romano Schmid: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Romano Schmid: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Romano Schmid: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Patrick Pentz: 5+ saves | 47% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Pedro Porro: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Rodri: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Pedri: 3+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 3+ shots | 45% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals | 44% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ shots on target | 44% |
| Patrick Pentz: 2+ saves | 44% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots | 44% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 2+ shots | 41% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots on target | 41% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots on target | 41% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ shots on target | 41% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ shots | 40% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 2+ shots | 40% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 1+ shots | 40% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ shots | 37% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists | 37% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots on target | 36% |
| Unai Simón: 2+ saves | 36% |
| Romano Schmid: 1+ shots | 36% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 1+ shots | 35% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ shots on target | 34% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ shots on target | 31% |
| Pedri: 4+ goals + assists | 29% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots | 29% |
| Carney Chukwuemeka: 1+ shots | 28% |
| Konrad Laimer: 1+ shots | 28% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Paul Wanner: 1+ shots | 27% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ goals | 26% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ shots | 26% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 4+ shots | 25% |
| Rodri: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Pedri: 1+ assists | 24% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots on target | 24% |
| Lamine Yamal: 5+ shots | 24% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ goals | 22% |
| Pedri: 2+ shots | 22% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ shots on target | 22% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ goals + assists | 22% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ shots | 22% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ shots | 22% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots | 22% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ assists | 21% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 5+ shots | 21% |
| Pedri: 1+ shots on target | 20% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ shots | 20% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 2+ shots | 20% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 2+ shots | 20% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Pedri: 1+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ assists | 18% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 2+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 2+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Pedri: 2+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Dani Olmo: 5+ shots | 18% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ goals + assists | 17% |
| Rodri: 2+ goals + assists | 17% |
| Romano Schmid: 2+ shots | 17% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Rodri: 1+ shots on target | 16% |
| Rodri: 2+ shots on target | 16% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ shots | 16% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ shots on target | 15% |
| Carney Chukwuemeka: 2+ shots | 15% |
| Paul Wanner: 2+ shots | 15% |
| Rodri: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 1+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Konrad Laimer: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Konrad Laimer: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Romano Schmid: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Romano Schmid: 1+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 1+ shots on target | 13% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots on target | 13% |
| Rodri: 1+ goals + assists | 13% |
| Konrad Laimer: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots on target | 12% |
| Carney Chukwuemeka: 3+ shots | 12% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ shots on target | 11% |
| Pedri: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 2+ shots on target | 10% |
| Alex Baena: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Pedri: 2+ shots on target | 9% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ shots on target | 9% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ goals + assists | 9% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 3+ shots | 9% |
| Rodri: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Pedri: 3+ shots | 8% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ assists | 7% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 2+ shots on target | 7% |
| Konrad Laimer: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Pedro Porro: 3+ shots | 7% |
| Romano Schmid: 3+ shots | 7% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Carney Chukwuemeka: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Rodri: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Rodri: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Konrad Laimer: 1+ goals + assists | 6% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Konrad Laimer: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Paul Wanner: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Pedri: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Rodri: 4+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Carney Chukwuemeka: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Paul Wanner: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Romano Schmid: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Pedri: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Pedro Porro: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Konrad Laimer: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Paul Wanner: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Romano Schmid: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ assists | 3% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Carney Chukwuemeka: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Konrad Laimer: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Paul Wanner: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ shots | 2% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ shots | 2% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Rodri: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ shots | 2% |
| Nico Williams: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Nico Williams: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Pedri: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ goals + assists | 1% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 4+ goals + assists | 1% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 4+ goals + assists | 1% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ goals + assists | 1% |
| Nico Williams: 4+ goals + assists | 1% |
| Pedro Porro: 4+ goals + assists | 1% |
| Romano Schmid: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Rodri: 2+ goals | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 95% chance of spain vs. austria - player props. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Spain and Austria, scheduled for July 2 at 3:00 PM ET.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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